Future Middle East: Secular Democracies or Fundamentalist Theocracies?

London, UK - 6th March 2011, 20:30 GMT

Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Which pre-conditions exist for the evolution of secular democracies in the Middle East as opposed to fundamentalist theocracies like Iran? Is Egypt a likely candidate to set an example for the rest?

Secular Democracy or Fundamentalist Theocracy?

We now have three different examples:

1. Tunisia
2. Egypt
3. Libya

Other templates are brewing:

4. Bahrain
5. Yemen
6. Jordan
7. Oman
8. Saudi Arabia
9. Algeria
10. Morocco

The older template is crystallised:

11. Iran post 1979

If everything goes the way of Tunisia and Egypt, less problems? If everything goes the way of Libya, chaos? What happens if the Middle-East revolutions copy Iran post 1979?

This is the crux. If we end up with more Irans post 1979 we have a serious global crisis. If we end up with more peaceful non-violent revolutions that slowly metamorphose towards democracy, there is really no issue, other than a welcome change. Do you agree that Egypt is a key marker in the sand? What of Saudi Arabia?

What are your thoughts, observations and views? We look forward to your participation in this Socratic dialogue.

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[ENDS]

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