USD 200 Oil Super Spike -- What
are the Consequences?
London, UK - 8th May 2008, 10:59 GMT
Dear ATCA Colleagues
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors
are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral.
ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
Most analysts laughed when Goldman Sachs predicted that oil
would go to USD 100 a barrel more than two years ago. Brent crude is around
USD 124 a barrel at present. Crude prices have doubled in a year and risen
six fold since 2002. Now Goldman Sachs is suggesting USD 200 on the upside
of a super-spike within the next 24 months. This figure has also been mooted
by some members of OPEC. Given the fundamentals on both demand and the supply
side internationally there is a chance that the super-spike may well take
place. The oil price is still rising and may get much higher than where
we are at. World oil prices rose 1.4 percent on Wednesday, extending further
into record territory amid intensifying worries over tight world supplies
of diesel fuel. A US government report showed a decline last week in distillate
inventories -- which include diesel and heating oil -- that brought stockpiles
in the world's biggest energy consumer nearly 13 percent below a year ago.
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