Greek Default Imminent - Eurozone Crisis Escalates - Fear Spreads
London, UK - 10th September 2011, 14:15 GMT
Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
1. Greek default now appears to be imminent and the inevitable is happening in regard to the Eurozone given that the Germans hold the trump cards;
Eurozone crisis escalates
2. Key sources at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Bundestag’s finance committee in Berlin suggest feverish preparations underway to prepare for Greek default;
3. We have warned about this step-by-step Eurozone break-up scenario for the last several years, since before the start of the global financial crisis in 2007;
4. Monetary union without fiscal union was always going to be a recipe for Eurozone chaos which is now manifest in the bond markets;
5. While the focus is on dilating bond yields, the Eurozone crisis is likely to unfold dramatically with unanticipated consequences for many European banks as:
a. both confidence-in-the-market and share prices decline;
b. tier-1 capital ratios erode; and
c. non-performing loans continue to escalate;
6. As several European banks arrive at the brink of failure simultaneously they are likely to be left with no choice other than to:
a. merge with each other;
b. break up and be sold in parts; or
c. receive capital injections from their own government to:
ii. re-capitalise; or
iii. shore up their reserves;
7. Each government is going to have to fall back on its own national resources which may or may not be sufficient for the losses incurred in their banking system with trans-national exposures;
8. In the meantime, interbank lending and trading between financial counterparties may demonstrate freezing-up similar to the aftermath of:
a. the Lehman Brothers collapse in New York on September 15th, 2008; or
b. the Rothschild-owned Creditanstalt bank collapse in Vienna on May 11th, 1931;
both of which exacerbated the global financial crisis at the time and ultimately set off a “nuclear-chain-reaction” of events that led to multiple financial institution failures and near-failures as ripples cascaded;
9. The mi2g Intelligence Unit and ATCA 5000 Research and Analysis Wing’s high level sources confirm a Eurozone crisis is now in the making triggered by a Greek default not just from within European capitals but also American and Asian key capitals; and
10. More critical updates are arriving by the hour as financial fears in regard to the viability of the Eurozone and key European banks continue to spread.
A complex “Eurozone Crisis” mosaic is now forming as our super-computing analytics and risk visualisation capability allows us to crunch the data and intelligence arriving in real time and feed the outcomes into different risk scenarios. If you or your organisation come across any extraordinary intelligence nugget, triangulated by credible sources, to complement our Eurozone risk analysis please let us know.
We are hosting an Expert roundtable on this issue at ATCA 24/7 on Yammer.
Expert roundtables are the newly launched ATCA 24/7 Q&A private exclusive club service. They seek to become the killer application in strategic intelligence by delivering an unprecedented competitive advantage to our distinguished members. They can only be accessed online at https://www.yammer.com/atca
Q1: How to become a privileged member of ATCA 24/7 to participate in the expert roundtables?
A1: i. If you are a distinguished member of ATCA 5000, ATCA Open, The Philanthropia or HQR affiliated groups you may be allowed to become a privileged member of this new and exclusive private club.
ii. If you are pre-invited, visit the private intelligence network -- PIN -- by going to https://www.yammer.com/atca [Note: In https:// 's' is for security and encryption]
iii. If you don't have membership of the PIN yet, email the mi2g Intelligence Unit at intelligence.unit at mi2g dot com for an exclusive invitation.
Q2: How to participate in the expert roundtables and get domain-specific strategic intelligence questions answered?
A2: Access the ATCA 24/7 Private Intelligence Network -- PIN -- online and ask or answer a strategic intelligence question, no matter how complex. Receive expert answers within 24 hours or get pointers from:
i. ATCA 5000 experts who are online;
ii. ATCA Research and Analysis Wing; and
iii. mi2g Intelligence Unit.
Q3: Why is the ATCA 24/7 Q&A Exclusive Club special?
A3: ATCA 24/7 has now created an exclusive private intelligence watering hole and expert roundtable at the highest level where interesting and sophisticated questions are being asked from around the world, and intelligent answers are being provided, almost always by experts who have deep domain-specific knowledge. Come and check out the exclusive club, take it for a strategic test drive, which sign-of-intelligent life are you waiting for?
To learn more about "The Expert Roundtable: ATCA 24/7 Q&A Club" email: intelligence.unit at mi2g.com and if you are already a member visit https://www.yammer.com/atca
We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. To reflect further on this subject and others, please respond within Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn's ATCA Open and related discussion platform of HQR. Should you wish to connect directly with real time Twitter feeds, please click as appropriate:
. ATCA Open
. mi2g Intelligence Unit
. Open HQR
. DK Matai