Low Probability High Impact and
Black Swan Events
London, UK - 12 June 2007, 14:22 GMT
Dear ATCA Colleagues
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors
are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral.
ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and
threats.]
Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk
of Asymmetric Globalisation
We are all being hurled closer to each other as the world integrates
faster than ever before. The propensity for fast global integration
creates both huge opportunities and its inevitable flip-side, huge risks.
In the future, we should be concerned about Low Probability High Impact
and Black Swan events which can change the present trajectory of nation
states and large economic entities, many with turnovers in excess of
the GDP of most nations. Welcome to Asymmetric Globalisation in which
friends and adversaries are no longer similar looking as they react
to on- and off-the-radar forces giving rise to Low Probability High
Impact and Black Swan Events. This also means that more risk is increasingly
transferred into the markets away from Sovereign states, increasing
their volatility.
[CONTINUES]
[ATCA Membership]
As a special consideration, please note that some Low Probability High
Impact and Black Swan events may actually become High Probability High
Impact Events as time goes by owing to the five drivers converging and
colliding.
The ATCA think-piece, based on major research, was put together by DK
Matai and the mi2g Intelligence Unit. ATCA reviewers of the article
include: Aileen Armour-Biggs, Douglas Byblow, Professor Nigel M de S
Cameron, Hervé de Carmoy, Fred Cohen, Jean-Yves Gresser, Hamid
Hakimzadeh, Gerald Harris, Rear Admiral John Hilton, Chris Histed, Alexander
Hoare, Prof Sai-Felicia Krishna-Hensel, Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Andrew
Leung, George Littlejohn, Thierry Malleret, Dr Harald Malmgren, Nicholas
Mellor, Miguel Mendonca, Prof Jim Norton, John Petersen, John Pickering,
Richard Thomas Gerber, Commodore Patrick Tyrrell, Michael Wade, Sir
Harold Walker, Ian Walker and Martin Wolf.
[ENDS]
We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank
you.
Best wishes
For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance (ATCA)
ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001
to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic
dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global
economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses
asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate
chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics
and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies
-- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource
shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as
well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is
by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from
over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords,
House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's
Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial
institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations
as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence
worldwide.
The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily
representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please
do not forward or use the material circulated without permission
and full attribution.
Intelligence Unit | mi2g | tel +44 (0) 20 7712 1782 fax +44
(0) 20 7712 1501 | internet www.mi2g.net
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