Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events

London, UK - 12 June 2007, 14:22 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation

We are all being hurled closer to each other as the world integrates faster than ever before. The propensity for fast global integration creates both huge opportunities and its inevitable flip-side, huge risks. In the future, we should be concerned about Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan events which can change the present trajectory of nation states and large economic entities, many with turnovers in excess of the GDP of most nations. Welcome to Asymmetric Globalisation in which friends and adversaries are no longer similar looking as they react to on- and off-the-radar forces giving rise to Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events. This also means that more risk is increasingly transferred into the markets away from Sovereign states, increasing their volatility.

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]

As a special consideration, please note that some Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan events may actually become High Probability High Impact Events as time goes by owing to the five drivers converging and colliding.

The ATCA think-piece, based on major research, was put together by DK Matai and the mi2g Intelligence Unit. ATCA reviewers of the article include: Aileen Armour-Biggs, Douglas Byblow, Professor Nigel M de S Cameron, Hervé de Carmoy, Fred Cohen, Jean-Yves Gresser, Hamid Hakimzadeh, Gerald Harris, Rear Admiral John Hilton, Chris Histed, Alexander Hoare, Prof Sai-Felicia Krishna-Hensel, Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Andrew Leung, George Littlejohn, Thierry Malleret, Dr Harald Malmgren, Nicholas Mellor, Miguel Mendonca, Prof Jim Norton, John Petersen, John Pickering, Richard Thomas Gerber, Commodore Patrick Tyrrell, Michael Wade, Sir Harold Walker, Ian Walker and Martin Wolf.


We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.

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