Eurozone Crisis Intensifies: What Does The Canary In The Mineshaft Indicate? Contagion
London, UK - 12th September 2011, 21:25 GMT
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[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
1. Going forwards, the Eurozone crisis may turn into its own nemesis as confidence erodes swiftly and leadership is found to be wanting.
2. As all eyes turn to the Eurozone, what next? Falling euro has hit a 10-year low against the yen. Japanese market has closed at a 2.5 year low.
3. Why are the worst year-on-year losses for key bourses all in the Eurozone? Milan -34% Madrid -27% Paris -23% Brussels -20% Frankfurt -18%.
4. Why are the Germans and Dutch talking openly about Greek default and exit? Failure of Greece to meet fiscal target pre-conditions for bailouts.
5. Greek default? Never believe anything until it’s been officially denied! Greece has issued three denials this weekend that one can count.
6. What does Juergen Stark's departure from the ECB mean? Divisions between German financial leadership and Eurozone members over bond buying and bailouts.
7. What is the outcome of the G7 finance ministers meeting? Nothing new was agreed. This highlights major differences between key G7 members.
8. One of the largest banks in the world, BNP Paribas triggered the August 2007 crisis. Its shares fell 12.35% today. Downgrade of major French banks is imminent.
Does the canary in the mineshaft indicate that history is just about to repeat itself or is it going to recite a more severe rhyme?
Let us not underestimate the threat of contagion from Greece's default. Not just Ireland and Portugal, Italy and Spain, but also Austria, Belgium, Cyprus and France, alongside Eastern Europe, are likely to be in the melancholic doldrums as Greece defaults. The mighty Germany may also need to save several of its banks from going under. The consequences for the rest of the global economies and world trade will be far from benign as Eurozone pandemonium gets into full swing.
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