Large Quake Hits Quants &
Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead

London, UK - 14 August 2007, 01:40 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Large Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit;"

. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead;"
. Prof Dr Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group, based in Frankfurt, Germany, for "Economic Consequences of The Sub-Prime Crisis;"
. Anthony Whitehouse based in Coppet and Geneva, Switzerland, for "Regulators, Hedge Fund Lending and Cross-Selling;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Perfect Storm: Credit Freeze and Distress Selling by Hedge Funds;"
. Dr George Feiger, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Two Faces of the Same Coin;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, for "Contagion and Systemic Risk? ECB Injects Record Euro 95bn post Major Disturbance;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, for "Flight to Quality as Markets finally Appreciate Risk;"
. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class;"
. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City of London, for "Destructive Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"

in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and its Impact on the World."

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Large Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit

Goldman Sachs Group, the biggest US investment bank by market value, is to inject USD 2bn to bail out its Global Equity Opportunities (GEO) hedge fund after the investment bank's computer models failed to predict last week's market turbulence -- leading to losses of about USD 1.4bn, or more than 30 per cent of its value. GEO was hit by "significant market dislocation" that has affected many funds using quantitative strategies according to Goldman. Such funds rely on computer models to make market bets that attempt to exploit differences in various securities. Goldman has also raised USD 1bn for the USD 3.6bn GEO fund from a group of other investors: including Hank Greenberg of C V Starr & Co, the former Chairman of American International Group (AIG); Richard Perry of Perry Capital, the former Goldman trader; and Eli Broad, the US billionaire.

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Best wishes

ATCA Editorial Team

Dr Harald Malmgren is Chief Executive of Malmgren Global and also currently the Chairman of the Cordell Hull Institute in Washington, DC, a private, not-for-profit "think tank" which he co-founded with Lawrence Eagleburger, former US Secretary of State. He is an internationally recognised expert on world trade and investment flows who has worked for four US Presidents. His extensive personal global network among governments, central banks, financial institutions, and corporations provides a highly informed basis for his assessments of global markets. At Yale University, he was a Scholar of the House and Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling, graduating BA summa cum laude in 1957. At Oxford University, he studied under Nobel Laureate Sir John Hicks, and wrote several widely referenced scholarly articles while earning a DPhil in Economics in 1961. His theoretical works on information theory and business organization have continued to be cited by academics over the last 45 years. After Oxford, he began his academic career in the Galen Stone Chair in Mathematical Economics at Cornell University. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead

ATCA's Editorial Team has characterized this summer's financial market tumult as "a perfect storm." Certainly what we are experiencing does seem like one of those most improbable events in which everything that can go wrong is going wrong, and all at the same time.

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Warm regards

Harald Malmgren

Dr Harald Malmgren commenced his career in government service under President John F Kennedy, working with the Pentagon in revamping the Defense Department's military and procurement strategies. When President Lyndon B Johnson took office, Dr Malmgren was asked to join the newly organised office of the US Trade Representative in the President's staff, where he had broad negotiating responsibility as the first Assistant US Trade Representative. He left government service in 1969, to direct research at the Overseas Development Council, and to act as trade adviser to the US Senate Finance Committee. At that time, he authored International Economic Peacekeeping, which many trade experts believe provided the blueprint for global trade liberalisation in the Tokyo Round of the 1970s and the Uruguay Round of the 1980s. In 1971-72 he also served as principal adviser to the OECD Wise Men's Group on opening world markets, under the chairmanship of Jean Rey, and he served as a senior adviser to President Richard M Nixon on foreign economic policies. President Nixon then appointed him to be the principal Deputy US Trade Representative, with the rank of Ambassador. In this role he served Presidents Nixon and Ford as the American government's chief trade negotiator in dealing with all nations. While in USTR, he became known in Congress as the father of "fast track" trade negotiating authority, which he first introduced into the historically innovative Trade Act of 1974. He was the first official of any government to call for global negotiations on liberalisation of financial services, and he was the first US official to call for the establishment of an Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation arrangement, known in more recent years as APEC.

In 1975 Dr Malmgren left government service, and was appointed Woodrow Wilson Fellow at the Smithsonian Institution. From the late 1970s he managed an international consulting business, providing advice to many corporations, banks, investment banks, and asset management institutions, as well as to Finance Ministers and Prime Ministers of many governments on financial markets, trade, and currencies. He has also been an adviser to subsequent US Presidents, as well as to a number of prominent American politicians of both parties. Over the years, he has continued writing many publications both in economic theory and in public policy and markets.


We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.

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