London, UK - 27 August 2006, 14:11 GMT - ATCA: Climate Chaos -- Ernesto, first Hurricane of 2006, arrives on the anniversary of Katrina

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

As the anniversary of hurricane Katrina approaches, Ernesto has grown into the first hurricane of the year on Sunday. It has gained strength rapidly on a path that could threaten the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico a year after hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans.

The Category 1 hurricane could grow into a Category 3 type by Thursday, said the US National Hurricane Center in Miami. The Category 3 hurricane Katrina struck the city of New Orleans, a year ago, on Tuesday. The US National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's top sustained winds rose to 75 mph (120 kph), up from 70 mph (110 kph) in a 0900 GMT advisory and 60 mph (95 kph) just a few hours earlier.

Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba have issued hurricane watches. The Miami-based US hurricane centre said Ernesto is likely to become a Category 2 hurricane -- the second-lowest level on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity -- before it reaches the coast of Cuba on Monday. A Category 2 storm has top sustained winds from 96 to 110 mph (155-177 kph) and can cause moderate damage.

The storm, moving northwest at 10 mph, was projected to make landfall in Haiti on Sunday afternoon, dropping heavy rain that could cause deadly mudslides in the heavily deforested country. Ernesto was expected to cross west-central Cuba on Tuesday night before continuing into the Gulf of Mexico.

Amongst potential targets keeping close watch on the storm is the city of New Orleans, still struggling to recover from hurricane Katrina's devastating blow on the 29th last August. Forecasters have said that warm waters could greatly strengthen Ernesto as it approaches the Gulf, where a quarter of US crude oil and natural gas production is based. This could impact on the price of oil as it did last year post hurricane Katrina.

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We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to understand and to address complex global challenges. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats arising from climate chaos, radical poverty, organised crime, extremism, informatics, nanotechnology, robotics, genetics, artificial intelligence and financial systems. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members: including several from the House of Lords, House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence worldwide.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.

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