Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to the distinguished daughter and father, both of whom have served different US Presidents:

. Dr Philippa Malmgren, Founder, Policy & Markets, & President, Canonbury Group, based in London, UK, for "Geo-Political Risk & Inflation based Black Swans;"
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA, for "Greenspan's Double-Digit Inflation Shadow over the World's Central Bankers;"

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Geo-Political Risk -- US-China, Iran & Russia -- & Inflation based Black Swans

People now believe that geopolitical risk is something from the past and inflation is dead. ATCA has pointed out that it might become very difficult, "if there is a sudden arrival of another Black Swan -- outlier event -- which sends a shock to the world economy alongside the presently unfolding global credit crunch."

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All my best

Pippa Malmgren

Dr Philippa Malmgren is the President of the Canonbury Group, a financial services firm based in London, which helps fund managers and global businesses better understand how politics, policy and geopolitics may influence the financial markets and their investment strategies. She is the founder and publisher of Policy & Markets, which brings together experts together with traders and fund managers to assess the specific impact of world events on prices. Her clients include many of the world's largest investment banks, fund managers and hedge funds as well as corporations. She also holds a conference every year, Canonbury at Ditchley, where fund managers, bankers, family offices and pension funds meet with experts on intelligence, strategic security, defence, politics and central banking policy from around the world. She serves on the International Advisory Board of The School of Oriental and African Studies in London and she also serves on the International Advisory Board for EFG Bank, Carret Asset Management, Bourne Park Capital and Old Square Capital. She has served as the Chairman of the Royal Institute for International Affairs Working Group on Terrorism Risks to the World Economy. She is a Governor of the Ditchley Foundation in the UK. She is a visiting lecturer at Tsinghua University in Beijing and often lectures for the Global MBA program at Duke Fuqua Business School.

Dr Malmgren is one of less than five independent analysts who has been invited to attend the Jackson Hole meeting held by the Federal Reserve over the last six years. She served as Special Assistant to the President in the White House under President George W Bush where she was responsible for all financial market issues. She was a member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets and the President's Working Group on Corporate Governance. After September 11th, 2001 she participated in the White House Working Group on Terrorism Risks to the Economy. Before joining the administration she lived in the UK, Europe and Asia. She was President of a financial markets advisory firm, Malmgren and Company, in London, England. Previously she was the Head of Political Analysis and the Deputy Head of Global Investment Strategy at UBS Warburg in London, England. Prior to that, she was the Chief Currency Strategist for Bankers Trust Company. She also headed the Global Investment Management business for Bankers Trust in Asia out of Hong Kong.

She has a BA from Mount Vernon College and an MSc and a PhD from the London School of Economics. She has also completed the Harvard Program on National Security. The World Economic Forum in Davos named Dr Malmgren a Global Leader for Tomorrow in 2000. She was named a Young Leader by the French-American Foundation. She belongs to the Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House and the Institute for International Strategic Security. She has been a frequent guest on television including CNN, CNBC, the BBC and Bloomberg and a regular speaker at investor and business conferences including Fortune's Most Powerful Women in Business, the World Economic Forum, Euromoney and Institutional Investor conferences, the Confederation of British Industries Annual Meeting, the Asia Pacific Economic Council Business Leaders Annual Meeting, Cercle des Economists and various banking, asset management and industry annual meetings. She has also written for The International Economy, International Fund Investment Magazine and Institutional Investor.
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Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Greenspan's Double-Digit Inflation Shadow over the World's Central Bankers

Still a giant straddling the world economy, Alan Greenspan has put his book on sale on Monday, September 17, 2007 - just one day before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to determine whether US interest rates should be cut. There should be no doubt that Greenspan's timing was intentional, as the schedule of the 2007 FOMC meetings was set almost a year ago. The underlying message of Greenspan's "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World" is that the forces of inflation will intensify, necessitating double-digit interest rates sooner rather than later.

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Harald Malmgren

Dr Harald Malmgren is Chief Executive of Malmgren Global and also currently the Chairman of the Cordell Hull Institute in Washington, DC, a private, not-for-profit "think tank" which he co-founded with Lawrence Eagleburger, former US Secretary of State. He is an internationally recognised expert on world trade and investment flows who has worked for four US Presidents. His extensive personal global network among governments, central banks, financial institutions, and corporations provides a highly informed basis for his assessments of global markets. At Yale University, he was a Scholar of the House and Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling, graduating BA summa cum laude in 1957. At Oxford University, he studied under Nobel Laureate Sir John Hicks, and wrote several widely referenced scholarly articles while earning a DPhil in Economics in 1961. His theoretical works on information theory and business organization have continued to be cited by academics over the last 45 years. After Oxford, he began his academic career in the Galen Stone Chair in Mathematical Economics at Cornell University.

Dr Malmgren commenced his career in government service under President John F Kennedy, working with the Pentagon in revamping the Defense Department's military and procurement strategies. When President Lyndon B Johnson took office, Dr Malmgren was asked to join the newly organised office of the US Trade Representative in the President's staff, where he had broad negotiating responsibility as the first Assistant US Trade Representative. He left government service in 1969, to direct research at the Overseas Development Council, and to act as trade adviser to the US Senate Finance Committee. At that time, he authored International Economic Peacekeeping, which many trade experts believe provided the blueprint for global trade liberalisation in the Tokyo Round of the 1970s and the Uruguay Round of the 1980s. In 1971-72 he also served as principal adviser to the OECD Wise Men's Group on opening world markets, under the chairmanship of Jean Rey, and he served as a senior adviser to President Richard M Nixon on foreign economic policies. President Nixon then appointed him to be the principal Deputy US Trade Representative, with the rank of Ambassador. In this role he served Presidents Nixon and Ford as the American government's chief trade negotiator in dealing with all nations. While in USTR, he became known in Congress as the father of "fast track" trade negotiating authority, which he first introduced into the historically innovative Trade Act of 1974. He was the first official of any government to call for global negotiations on liberalisation of financial services, and he was the first US official to call for the establishment of an Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation arrangement, known in more recent years as APEC.

In 1975 Dr Malmgren left government service, and was appointed Woodrow Wilson Fellow at the Smithsonian Institution. From the late 1970s he managed an international consulting business, providing advice to many corporations, banks, investment banks, and asset management institutions, as well as to Finance Ministers and Prime Ministers of many governments on financial markets, trade, and currencies. He has also been an adviser to subsequent US Presidents, as well as to a number of prominent American politicians of both parties. Over the years, he has continued writing many publications both in economic theory and in public policy and markets.

[ENDS]

* The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Credit Card Debt Default - The Domino Crisis post Sub-Prime Overflow;"
* Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based in Berkeley, California, USA for "Responsibility for Credit, Securitisation and Moral Hazard."
. Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva, Switzerland, for "Blame and Sanctions in the Credit Crunch;"
. Prof Prabhu Guptara, Executive Director, Organisational Development, Wolfsberg (UBS), Switzerland, for "Unique Problems with 1990s Japan;"
. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, and Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA, for "Central Bankers, Monetary Policy and Moral Hazard;"
* William Sturge, Partner, Reinsurance, Lawrence Graham (LG) based in Central London, UK, for "Litigation Exposure and Insurances that may Respond;"
. Peter Tasker, Founding Partner, Arcus Investment, based in Tokyo, Japan, for "Invaluable Lessons from 1990s Japan - Risks of Schadenfreude;"
. Andrew Leung, CEO, AL International, London, UK, and frequent visitor to China for "The China Dimension of The Global Credit Crunch;"
* The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, and Dr Harald Malmgren based in Washington, DC, USA for "Off-Balance Sheet Conduits & SIVs Raise Wider Concerns;"
* Prof Charles Calomiris, Columbia Business School, New York & Prof Joseph Mason, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA for "The Conflict of Rating Agencies and Regulation - We need a Better Way to Judge Risk;"

. Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based in Berkeley, California, USA for, "Questioning the Views of a Nobel Laureate;"
. Prof Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics (2001), Columbia University, New York, USA , for "Day of Reckoning for Americans who lived Beyond their Means;"
. Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based in Berkeley, California, USA for "Suggestions for Resolving Sub-Prime Dilemma Step by Step;"
* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Understanding Rating Agencies beyond the Sub-Prime Meltdown;"
* The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Asymmetric Knowledge Risk and Market Deadlock;"
* Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva, Switzerland, for "High Credit Ratings and Breakdown of Trust;"
* John Pickering, Vice-Chairman, Labour Finance and Industry Group, based in London and Tunbridge Wells, UK, for "Role of Auditors;"
* The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating Agencies;"
. Peter Tasker, Founding Partner, Arcus Investment, based in Tokyo, Japan, for "Resilience of Corporate Profits & Sub-Prime Fiasco -- Global View from Japan;"
. Daniel Morler, Head of Middle East, LGT Private Bank, based in Vaduz, Liechtenstein, for "Human Factor, Information Lag, Geo-Politics and Central Banks;"

. Justin Urquhart Stewart, Director, Seven Investment Management, London, UK, for "Pride Before the Fall -- Those Who Don't Know that they Don't Know;"
. Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, London, UK, for "To Cut or Not to Cut: Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party;"
. The Hon Al McDonald, Chairman and CEO, Avenir Group, from Michigan, USA, for "Balancing The Role of Management in Extreme Financial Turbulence."
. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Subprime Crisis Spreads Across Regions and Financial Sectors;"
* Hervé de Carmoy, European Vice-Chairman, Trilateral Commission, based in Paris, France, for "Role of Large Financial Institutions in Fuelling Crisis;"
* Dr Jim Walker, Chief Economist, CLSA, based in Hong Kong for "China Chaos and Subprime Butterfly;"
. Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, CEO, India-Advisory, based in Brussels, EU, and Bassilly, Belgium, for "India turns History Upside Down;"
. John Elkington, Chief Entrepreneur, SustainAbility, based in London, UK, and returning from India, for "Mother Convulsion - India's Third Liberation;"
. Stephen Lendman, based in Chicago, Illinois, USA, for "Slow Motion Train Wreck" via Ashok Khosla, Chairman, Development Alternatives, New Delhi, India;
. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Market Convulsions;"

. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Federal Reserve's Changed Focus;"
. Bill Emmott, Director, UK-Japan 21st Century Group, based in London and Somerset, UK, for "Japan's Strong Yen;"
* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "The Asymmetric Loss of Trust and Chain Reaction;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Public Inquisition of Credit Rating Agencies may Accelerate Downturn;"
. Dr George Feiger, President and CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Watch out for Dramatic Winners;"
* The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Systemic Risk & Sectoral Meltdown: Heightened Correlation and Deleveraging;"
. Rudi Bogni, Chairman, Medinvest, and Director, Old Mutual, from Basel, Switzerland, for, "Non-Stop Central Banks' Intervention;"
. Dr Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas, USA, for, "Towards a Global Economic Crisis?;"
. Aurora Carlson, Founder, Open One Center, based on the West Coast, Sweden, for "The Coming Storm of Change;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Large Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit;"

* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead;"
. Prof Dr Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group, based in Frankfurt, Germany, for "Economic Consequences of The Sub-Prime Crisis;"
. Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva, Switzerland, for "Regulators, Hedge Fund Lending and Cross-Selling;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Perfect Storm: Credit Freeze and Distress Selling by Hedge Funds;"
. Dr George Feiger, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Two Faces of the Same Coin;"
* The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, for "Contagion and Systemic Risk? ECB Injects Record Euro 95bn post Major Disturbance;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, for "Flight to Quality as Markets finally Appreciate Risk;"
. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class;"
. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City of London, for "Destructive Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"

in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and its Impact on the World."

+ Denotes ATCA QUERY: The Question of Trust +

* Denotes ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating Agencies *