Variables in Oil at $100; Credit Pyramid & Energy
Crisis; India's Role
London, UK - 24 September 2007, 13:16 GMT
Dear ATCA Colleagues
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors
are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral.
ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]
We are grateful to:
. The Rt Hon Lord Howell of Guildford, President, British Institute of Energy
Economics, based at The Palace of Westminster, London, UK, for "New
Variables in Oil Supply at USD 100;"
. Hamid Hakimzadeh, Hedge Fund Specialist, based in Buckinghamshire, England,
UK, for "The Credit Pyramid and Energy Crisis;" and
. Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, CEO, India-Advisory, from Brussels, European Union,
and Bassilly, Belgium, for "New India's Role in Global Energy Equation;"
Dear DK and Colleagues
Re: New Variables in Oil Supply at USD 100
In reference to your submission to ATCA, "Energy
Crunch: The Overlay of Peak Oil and Peak Uranium on the Credit Crunch,"
there is a crucial fourth variable in prospective oil supply and that is the
fast developing technology to identify, gain access to and produce from deep
oil deposits, both under land and water. At USD 100 a barrel all kinds of
new extraction technologies become attractive, opening up, inter alia, deposits
under the Arctic ice, hitherto regarded as enormous (est. 25% of unexplored
reserves) but hopelessly uneconomic. And if reports of Arctic ice melting
are true this all helps on the cost and accessibility fronts.
[CONTINUES]
[ATCA Membership]
David Howell
The Right Honourable Lord (David) Howell of Guildford, President of the British
Institute of Energy Economics, is a former Secretary of State for Energy and
for Transport in the UK Government and an economist and journalist. Lord Howell
is Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords and Conservative
Spokesman on Foreign Affairs. He also Chairs the Windsor Energy Group. Until
2002 he was Chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, (the high level bilateral
forum between leading UK and Japanese politicians, industrialists and academics),
which was first set up by Margaret Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1984.
In addition he writes a fortnightly column for The JAPAN TIMES in Tokyo, and
has done so since 1985. He also writes regularly for the International Herald
Tribune. David Howell was the Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee
on Foreign Affairs, 1987-97. He was Chairman of the House of Lords European
Sub-Committee on Common Foreign and Security Policy from 1999-2000. In 2001
he was awarded the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Sacred Treasure (Japan).
His latest book, 'Out of the Energy Labyrinth' has been described as 'a serious
and thoughtful attempt to grapple with the complexities of the energy challenge
and foreign policy', by James R Schlesinger, and as 'a terrific book, not
least because of its topicality' by Sir Simon Jenkins.
____________________________________________________________________________
Dear DK and Colleagues
Re: The Credit Pyramid and Energy Crisis
In its latest (2006) World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) projects demand to rise from 224m Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) per
day in 2004 to 342m BOE/day in 2030. This and virtually all other demand projections
tacitly assume that the requisite resources will be found and technologies
developed. A notable howler in this regard is the US DoE's Energy Information
Agency 1998 Annual Energy Outlook, which showed significant oil reserve growth,
only to observe in a footnote that these were "based on non -technical
considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary
to meet projected demand levels." For 'non-technical' substitute voodoo!
[CONTINUES] [ATCA
Membership]
Sincerely
Hamid Hakimzadeh
Hamid Hakimzadeh is specialised in Hedge Funds. He is a UK citizen of Persian
origin, who grew up in Germany and Switzerland, and subsequently studied mathematics
and philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His first career
consisted of senior executive positions in his family's engineering, manufacturing
and service businesses, one of Iran's prominent conglomerates known as the
Yazdbaf-Philver Group. Subsequent to the Iranian revolution in 1979, he established
and managed several private investment partnerships, including the Navigator
Fund and Summit Capital hedge funds. Since the conclusion of his active investment
management career, he focuses on global asset allocation models, with particular
emphasis on the identification of under-performing asset classes and the reflection
of probable outcomes in partially diversified portfolios.
____________________________________________________________________________
Dear DK and Colleagues
Re: New India's Role in Global Energy Equation
An excellent analysis of the big picture. However, there are two wild cards:
1. India's future success in its thorium-fuelled/fast-breeder nuclear program.
[India accounts for a major share of the world's thorium reserves].
It is important to underline in advance that there are several high-tech areas,
where India is on par -- or closing the gap -- vis-a-vis the West. Admittedly,
funding constraints have so far limited this to carefully-targeted strategic
priority areas such as space launchers, and communications or remote sensing/spy
satellites, but these -- like its thorium/breeder program -- are worthy of
careful attention, given India's record in such fields -- and the underlying
techno-infrastructural nuts-and-bolts.
[CONTINUES]
[ATCA Membership]
Kind regards
Ashutosh Sheshabalaya
Ashutosh Sheshabalaya is the author of 'Rising Elephant', which is a heavily-researched
bestseller about India's rise and long-term opportunity and challenge to the
West, published in the US, India and Europe. Described as a "tour de
force" by the Director of UBS bank's Wolfsberg think-tank and as "highly
provocative" by former Indian Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani, 'Rising
Elephant' has been reviewed worldwide. He has worked in Brussels as an accredited
foreign correspondent, in public affairs (for the European Federation of Pharmaceutical
Industries), and as a strategic consultant -- both for private corporations
as well as the European Commission, Invest in Sweden Agency and others. In
total, he has led research projects for over 65 studies covering a wide range
of industries. Now heading Belgium-based India-Advisory, he is a frequent
speaker at conferences and seminars in Europe, India and the US, author of
the 'Eye on the Tigers' column for E!Sharp, published by EU think-tank The
Centre, and an occasional contributor to Yale University's Center for Globalisation
and Washington's Globalist. A winner of the all-India National Science Talent
Scholarship and the Wien International Scholarship, he studied at a leading
Indian engineering institution, the Birla Institute of Technology and Science,
and at Brandeis University in the US. Mr Sheshabalaya is married to a Belgian
and is part of New and Old India. His parents were both university Vice Chancellors,
and his family includes an Industry Minister in the Nehru government, a Commissioner
in British India and representative of the Tata industrial group, one of India's
first women legislators, senior military officers, diplomats and seven members
of the elite Indian Administrative Service (IAS).
[ENDS]
The ATCA submissions can be accessed from here.
We are grateful to:
74. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Energy Crunch: The Overlay
of Peak Oil and Peak Uranium on the Credit Crunch;"
73+ Rudi Bogni, Chairman, Medinvest, and Director, Old Mutual, based in
London, UK, and Basel, Switzerland, for, "Transparency
always Pays in the Long Run;"
72+* Mark Cliffe, Chief Economist, ING Group, based in London, UK, and Amsterdam,
Netherlands, for "The Credit Crunch Blame Game
-- Inevitable, Necessary... but Dangerous;"
71+ The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Stress Testing BoE and FSA
System 10 Years post 1997 as Credit Crisis Winds 140 Years Back;"
70. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA,
for, "The Fed's Bold Action confirms Multiple
Threats to Financial Stability and Economic Growth;"
69. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Asymmetric Solutions: Fed
Cuts Key Rate;"
68. Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland,
for "Asymmetric Solutions: No War with Iran?;"
67+ Arthur Probert, Associate, & Mark Goyder, Founding Director, Tomorrow's
Company, London, UK, for "Asymmetric Solutions:
Restoring Trust after the Credit Crunch;"
66+ Jean-Yves Gresser, Vice-Chairman, Black Forest Group, New York, USA,
based in Paris and Granville, France, for "Asymmetric
Solutions: Enhancing Trust in Computing Platforms, Networks & Processes;"
65. Dr Philippa Malmgren, Founder, Policy & Markets, & President,
Canonbury Group, based in London, UK, for "Geo-Political
Risk & Inflation based Black Swans;"
64. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA,
for "Greenspan's Double-Digit Inflation Shadow
over the World's Central Bankers;"
63. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Fiat Money and Northern Rock's
Parallels with 1973-1975;"
62. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Margin of Safety and The
Bubble Phenomenon: Differentiating between Value Investment and Speculation;"
61. DK Matai, Executive Chairman, mi2g, ATCA, The Philanthropia,
based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for, "Predicting
the Future: How does the 'wisdom based super-sensitive a priori knowledge'
ATCA engine work?"
60* The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "In Goldman Sachs We Trust;"
59. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA,
and The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Currencies Turmoil Ahead:
Euro and Sterling Weakness around Point of Inflexion?;"
58. Eric Best, Founder and President, Best Partners SC, New York City, NY,
USA, for "Captains' Priorities and Requisite
Virtues in Deep Financial Storm;"
57. Andrew Hunt, Founder and Consultant Economist, Andrew Hunt Economics,
City of London, UK, for "The UK's Non-Bank
Banks and High LIBOR;"
56. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "Worst Financial Crisis in
20 Years and the 10 Day Debt Bomb;"
55+ DK Matai, Executive Chairman, mi2g, ATCA, The Philanthropia, based in
Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Breach-of-Trust
in Computing Platforms: Systemic Risk & Black Swans;"
54+ The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK, for "ATCA QUERY: The Question of
Trust;"
53. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA,
and The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf,
London, UK for "Central Banks' Intervention
and Europa;"
52. Hamid Hakimzadeh, Hedge Fund Specialist, based in Buckinghamshire, England,
UK, for "The Physics of Humpty Dumpty;"
and
51. Nigel Reed, Senior Analyst, Financial Markets, based in Cornwall, England,
UK, for "China, Japan & US T-Bonds."
50* The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London,
UK, for "Credit Card Debt Default - The Domino
Crisis post Sub-Prime Overflow;"
49* Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based
in Berkeley, California, USA for "Responsibility
for Credit, Securitisation and Moral Hazard."
48. Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva,
Switzerland, for "Blame and Sanctions in the
Credit Crunch;"
47. Prof Prabhu Guptara, Executive Director, Organisational Development, Wolfsberg
(UBS), Switzerland, for "Unique Problems with
1990s Japan;"
46. The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London,
UK, and Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC,
USA, for "Central Bankers, Monetary Policy and
Moral Hazard;"
45* William Sturge, Partner, Reinsurance, Lawrence Graham (LG) based in Central
London, UK, for "Litigation Exposure and Insurances
that may Respond;"
44. Peter Tasker, Founding Partner, Arcus Investment, based in Tokyo, Japan,
for "Invaluable Lessons from 1990s Japan - Risks
of Schadenfreude;"
43. Andrew Leung, CEO, AL International, London, UK, and frequent visitor
to China for "The China Dimension of The Global
Credit Crunch;"
42* The ATCA Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London,
UK, and Dr Harald Malmgren based in Washington, DC, USA for "Off-Balance
Sheet Conduits & SIVs Raise Wider Concerns;"
41* Prof Charles Calomiris, Columbia Business School, New York & Prof
Joseph Mason, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia,
USA for "The Conflict of Rating Agencies and
Regulation - We need a Better Way to Judge Risk;"
40. Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based
in Berkeley, California, USA for, "Questioning
the Views of a Nobel Laureate;"
39. Prof Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics (2001), Columbia University,
New York, USA , for "Day of Reckoning for Americans
who lived Beyond their Means;"
38. Dr George Feiger, President & CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based
in Berkeley, California, USA for "Suggestions
for Resolving Sub-Prime Dilemma Step by Step;"
37* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA
for "Understanding Rating Agencies beyond the
Sub-Prime Meltdown;"
36* The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London,
UK, for "Asymmetric Knowledge Risk and Market
Deadlock;"
35* Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva,
Switzerland, for "High Credit Ratings and Breakdown
of Trust;"
34* John Pickering, Vice-Chairman, Labour Finance and Industry Group, based
in London and Tunbridge Wells, UK, for "Role
of Auditors;"
33* The ATCA Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), based in Canary Wharf, London,
UK, for "ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating Agencies;"
32. Peter Tasker, Founding Partner, Arcus Investment, based in Tokyo, Japan,
for "Resilience of Corporate Profits & Sub-Prime
Fiasco -- Global View from Japan;"
31. Daniel Morler, Head of Middle East, LGT Private Bank, based in Vaduz,
Liechtenstein, for "Human Factor, Information
Lag, Geo-Politics and Central Banks;"
30. Justin Urquhart Stewart, Director, Seven Investment Management, London,
UK, for "Pride Before the Fall -- Those Who Don't Know that they Don't
Know;"
29. Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial
Times, London, UK, for "To Cut or Not to Cut:
Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party;"
28. The Hon Al McDonald, Chairman and CEO, Avenir Group, from Michigan, USA,
for "Balancing The Role of Management in Extreme
Financial Turbulence."
27. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Subprime
Crisis Spreads Across Regions and Financial Sectors;"
26* Hervé de Carmoy, European Vice-Chairman, Trilateral Commission,
based in Paris, France, for "Role of Large Financial
Institutions in Fuelling Crisis;"
25* Dr Jim Walker, Chief Economist, CLSA, based in Hong Kong for "China
Chaos and Subprime Butterfly;"
24. Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, CEO, India-Advisory, based in Brussels, EU, and
Bassilly, Belgium, for "India turns History Upside
Down;"
23. John Elkington, Chief Entrepreneur, SustainAbility, based in London, UK,
and returning from India, for "Mother Convulsion
- India's Third Liberation;"
22. Stephen Lendman, based in Chicago, Illinois, USA, for "Slow
Motion Train Wreck" via Ashok Khosla, Chairman, Development Alternatives,
New Delhi, India;
21. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Market
Convulsions;"
20. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA
for "Federal Reserve's Changed Focus;"
19. Bill Emmott, Director, UK-Japan 21st Century Group, based in London and
Somerset, UK, for "Japan's Strong Yen;"
18* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA
for "The Asymmetric Loss of Trust and Chain
Reaction;"
17. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Public
Inquisition of Credit Rating Agencies may Accelerate Downturn;"
16. Dr George Feiger, President and CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based
in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Watch out
for Dramatic Winners;"
15* The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Systemic
Risk & Sectoral Meltdown: Heightened Correlation and Deleveraging;"
14. Rudi Bogni, Chairman, Medinvest, and Director, Old Mutual, from Basel,
Switzerland, for, "Non-Stop Central Banks'
Intervention;"
13. Dr Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics, Southern Methodist University,
Dallas, Texas, USA, for, "Towards a Global
Economic Crisis?;"
12. Aurora Carlson, Founder, Open One Center, based on the West Coast, Sweden,
for "The Coming Storm of Change;"
11. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Large
Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit;"
10* Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA
for "Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead;"
9. Prof Dr Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group, based in
Frankfurt, Germany, for "Economic Consequences
of The Sub-Prime Crisis;"
8. Anthony Whitehouse, Founder, Bittiner Whitehouse (now Maitland), Geneva,
Switzerland, for "Regulators, Hedge Fund Lending
and Cross-Selling;"
7. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Perfect
Storm: Credit Freeze and Distress Selling by Hedge Funds;"
6. Dr George Feiger, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Two
Faces of the Same Coin;"
5* The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, for "Contagion
and Systemic Risk? ECB Injects Record Euro 95bn post Major Disturbance;"
4. The ATCA Editorial Team, for "Flight to Quality
as Markets finally Appreciate Risk;"
3. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction
Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate
as a Solid Asset Class;"
2. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City
of London, for "Destructive
Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
1. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for
"The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from
Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"
in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning
that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and
its Impact on the World."
+ Denotes ATCA QUERY: The Question of Trust +
* Denotes ATCA QUERY: Role of Credit Rating Agencies *
We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank
you.
Best wishes
For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance (ATCA)
ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001
to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic
dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global
economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses
asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate
chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics
and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies
-- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource
shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as
well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is
by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from
over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen
and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at
Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers;
as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.
The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily
representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please
do not forward or use the material circulated without permission
and full attribution.
Intelligence Unit | mi2g | tel +44 (0) 20 7712 1782 fax +44
(0) 20 7712 1501 | internet www.mi2g.net
mi2g: Winner of the Queen's Award for Enterprise in the category
of Innovation
|
